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Sweden’s Contributions to NATO: Bolstering the Alliance’s Defense Industry and Air Capabilities

当瑞典于2022年5月22日申请加入北约时，它结束了两个世纪的军事不结盟。尽管它很快得到了大多数北约成员国的批准，但土耳其和匈牙利延长了加入进程。随着土耳其的批准，所有的目光都集中在匈牙利身上，瑞典将在未来几周成为北约联盟的第32个成员国。瑞典拥有高度先进的军事力量，是防御联盟的净贡献者；其成员国身份大大提升了北约的能力。作为北约成员国，瑞典将为北约提供1）强大的国防工业支持，2）高技术能力，3）重要的空军力量。这些贡献对于北约应对现代威胁的准备工作至关重要，也将大大增强北约在波罗的海地区和北极这两个重要地区的能力。随着瑞典的现代化和多样化能力即将加入北约的工具包，值得一看该国现在和未来将为北约做出什么贡献。

When Sweden applied for NATO membership on May 22, 2022, it ended two centuries of military non-alignment. Although it was swiftly ratified by most NATO members, Türkiye and Hungary have prolonged the accession process. With ratification from Türkiye in hand, all eyes are on Hungary next, with Sweden set to become the 32nd member of the NATO Alliance in the coming weeks. Sweden has a highly advanced military and is a net contributor to the defensive alliance; its membership represents a considerable boost to NATO capabilities. As a member of NATO, Sweden will provide the Alliance with 1) support from its strong defense industry, 2) high-technological competence, and 3) a significant air force. These contributions will be crucial in preparing the Alliance to combat modern threats, as well as providing a dramatic multiplier to NATO’s capacity in two vital regions—the Baltic Sea region and the Arctic. With Sweden’s modern and diverse capabilities soon to be added to NATO’s toolkit, it is worth taking a look at what the country will contribute to the Alliance, now and in the future.

Three Major Benefits of Sweden Joining NATO 瑞典加入北约的三大好处

瑞典将能够在三个主要领域提供实实在在的利益。首先是瑞典的国防工业，这将提高联盟的军事工业能力。作为欧洲最大的国防工业之一，瑞典的国防工业在2022年达到30亿美元，国防材料出口总额超过20亿美元。该国最大的国防公司生产一些市场上最先进的设备，如萨博的Jas 39 Gripen和BAE系统公司的战车90。瑞典国防工业约有2.8万人就业，随着政府宣布大幅增加2024年的年度国防预算，这一数字可能还会上升；几乎是2020年国防预算的两倍。随着俄罗斯侵略后各国向乌克兰提供军备，对国防生产的高需求一直难以跟上武器需求，这种需求只会在未来几年持续下去。

There are three main areas where Sweden will be able to contribute tangible benefits. First is Sweden’s defense industry, which will boost the Alliance’s military-industrial capacity. One of the largest in Europe, Sweden’s defense industry amounted to $3 billion in 2022 with exports of defense material totaling over $2 billion. The country’s largest defense companies produce some of the most sophisticated equipment on the market, such as Saab’s Jas 39 Gripen and BAE System AB’s Combat Vehicle 90. Approximately 28,000 people are employed by Sweden’s defense industry, a figure likely to rise as the government has announced a considerable increase in its annual defense budget for 2024; nearly double that of its 2020 defense budget. The high demand for defense production, which has struggled to keep up with weapons demands as countries provide armaments to Ukraine in the wake of Russian aggression, is only going to continue for the coming years.

第二个好处是瑞典私营部门的技术能力很高。瑞典广泛的公私合作伙伴关系、可观的研发资金和高水平的教育体系是其在高科技领域取得成功的一些因素。2020年，政府与瑞典国防军、公立大学和私营公司合作，启动了一项国家“网络校园”倡议，并在斯德哥尔摩成立了网络防御和信息安全中心。随着北约扩大其应对网络和混合威胁的能力，瑞典的技术诀窍将有助于北约为应对明天的威胁做好准备。

The second benefit is the high level of technological competence in Sweden’s private sector. Sweden’s extensive public-private partnerships, considerable R&D funding, and highly-ranked education system are some of the factors behind its success in high-tech. The government launched a national ‘Cybercampus’ initiative in 2020 in partnership between the Swedish Defense Forces, public universities, and private companies, and established the Centre for Cyber Defence and Information Security in Stockholm. As NATO expands its ability to counter cyber and hybrid threats, Sweden’s technological know-how will help prepare the Alliance to prepare for tomorrow’s threats.

此外，随着瑞典加入北约，三家5G设备制造商中的两家——爱立信和诺基亚——将加入同一防御联盟。该国是领先的高科技公司的所在地，如世界第二大网络公司爱立信；Hexagon，一家大型软件公司；以及欧洲最大的锂电池生产商之一Northvolt。瑞典在吸引科技初创公司和培育独角兽（估值达到10亿美元的初创公司）方面的成功，使该国被非正式地称为“欧洲硅谷”。瑞典还拥有大量关键矿产，如铁矿石和稀土金属，这些矿产对国防工业、绿色转型和整体经济至关重要。最近在瑞典北部城市基鲁纳发现了一个稀土矿床，该国现在拥有欧洲已知最大的稀土金属矿床。瑞典将为该联盟提供一个关键的机会，以减少其对**和其他独菜政府的关键矿产依赖。

In addition, with Sweden in NATO, two of the three manufacturers of 5G equipment—Ericsson and Nokia—will be in the same defensive alliance. The country is home to leading high-tech firms, such as Ericsson, the world’s second largest network company; Hexagon, a major software company; and Northvolt, one of Europe’s largest producers of lithium batteries. Sweden’s success in attracting tech startups and in producing unicorns (startups reaching a billion dollar valuation) has led the country to be informally dubbed the ‘Silicon Valley of Europe’. Sweden also possesses large quantities of critical minerals—such as iron ore and rare earth metals—which are vital for the defense industry, in the green transition, and for the overall economy. After a recent discovery in the Northern Swedish city of Kiruna, the country now possesses the largest-known deposit of rare-earth metals in Europe. Sweden will provide the Alliance with a crucial opportunity to reduce its critical minerals dependency on *** and other authoritarian governments.

第三个好处是瑞典的空军。该国空军是北欧最大的空军，也是欧洲最大的空军之一，拥有至少100架战斗机。随着未来几年将交付更多的战斗机，瑞典将大幅增加联盟在波罗的海和北极地区的战斗机数量。这将减少美国等其他主要盟友在该地区提供空中监视和空中存在的需求，北约成员国现在能够在自己地区的防御中发挥更大的作用。尽管瑞典的空中能力很强，但它是为数不多的几个欧洲国家之一，也是唯一一个驾驶鹰狮的北欧国家。瑞典与其他北欧国家——挪威、芬兰和丹麦——于2023年3月签署了《北欧空中指挥官意向书》，目标是结合空中能力，更好地威慑俄罗斯。当各个北欧空军寻求在一个共同的目标下团结起来时，瑞典仍然是唯一一个拥有鹰狮战斗机的国家，其他国家都使用洛克希德·马丁公司设计的F-16或F-35。瑞典对鹰狮的承诺此前曾使其与美国产生分歧，随着盟军合作的加强，这一决定可能会在未来几年得到更多讨论。

The third benefit is Sweden’s air force. The country’s air force is the largest in the Nordics and one of the largest in Europe, possessing at least 100 fighter jets. With many more slated to be delivered in the upcoming years, Sweden is set to dramatically bolster the Alliance’s number of fighter jets in the Baltic and Arctic regions. This will reduce the need for other major allies such as the United States to provide air surveillance and air presence in the region, with NATO member states now able to take a larger role in their own region’s defense. Although Sweden’s air capabilities are significant, it is one of only a few European countries, and the only Nordic country, that flies the Gripen. Sweden, along with the other Nordic countries—Norway, Finland and Denmark—signed the Nordic Air Commander’s Intent in March 2023, with the goal of combining air capabilities to better deter Russia. As the individual Nordic air forces seek to unite under a common purpose, Sweden remains the odd one out with its Gripen fighters, the others all use the Lockheed Martin-designed F-16 or F-35. Sweden’s commitment to the Gripen has previously put it at odds with the United States, a decision which will likely be discussed more in the upcoming years as Allied cooperation intensifies.

Bolstering NATO’s Northern Corridor 支持北约北部走廊

鉴于瑞典位于北欧中心的地缘战略位置，瑞典加入北约也有利于北约。这是自1523年芬兰于2023年4月加入北约以来，所有北欧国家首次加入同一联盟。以瑞典为成员国，该联盟将在波罗的海地区获得战略纵深。波罗的海周围的大多数国家现在将成为同一军事联盟的一部分，这导致一些人将波罗的海称为“北约之湖”。瑞典加入该联盟将为该联盟增加三个新的战略位置：1）连接北海和波罗的海的主要海峡——亚瑟伦德海峡，该海峡现在将完全由北约成员国控制；2） 哥德兰岛是波罗的海最大的岛屿，由于其位于波罗的海的中心位置，经常被称为“永不沉没的航空母舰”；3）奥兰海和波的尼亚湾沿岸的海岸线将使联盟更容易保卫奥兰，奥兰是芬兰和瑞典之间位于波的尼亚海湾入口处的非军事区。瑞典正在增加其在这些地区的军事存在，尤其是在哥特兰。近年来，瑞典重新部署了一个机械化营和防空能力，并为保卫哥特兰预留了1.63亿美元的专项资金。北约进入哥特兰将大大提高其向波罗的海地区的兵力投送能力。

Sweden’s membership is also beneficial for NATO given Sweden’s geostrategic location in the heart of the Nordics. This is the first time all of the Nordic countries have been in the same alliance since 1523—after Finland’s accession to NATO in April 2023. With Sweden as a member, the Alliance will gain strategic depth in the Baltic Sea region. Most countries around the Baltic Sea will now be part of the same military alliance, which has led some people to dub the Baltic Sea a ‘NATO lake’. Sweden’s entry into the Alliance will add three new strategic locations to the Alliance: 1) the strait of Øresund, the main strait connecting the North Sea to the Baltic Sea, which will now be completely controlled by NATO members; 2) Gotland, the largest island in the Baltic Sea, often called an ‘unsinkable aircraft carrier’ due to its central location in the Baltics; and 3) shoreline along the Åland Sea and Gulf of Bothnia will make it easier for the Alliance to defend Åland, a demilitarized region between Finland and Sweden at the entry of the Gulf of Bothnia. Sweden is increasing its military presence in these areas, most notably on Gotland. In recent years, Sweden has relocated a mechanized battalion and anti-aircraft capabilities, as well as put aside specific financing of $163 million for the defense of Gotland. NATO access to Gotland will dramatically increase its force projection capabilities into the Baltic Sea region.

瑞典还拥有一支世界级的潜艇舰队，拥有一些最先进的潜艇，并拥有自1904年以来在波罗的海浅水区航行的丰富知识。瑞典舰队目前由三艘先进的哥特兰级潜艇和一艘旧型号潜艇组成，计划在2027年和2028年交付两种新设计时退役，到本世纪末将拥有五艘潜艇。至关重要的是，美国的全部潜艇能力和俄罗斯潜艇舰队的大部分都无法在波罗的海浅水区作战。瑞典凭借其悠久的潜艇专业知识和现代能力，填补了北约在波罗的海地区能力方面的一个关键缺口。

Sweden also possesses a world-class submarine fleet—with some of the most advanced submarines in operation—and a wealth of knowledge navigating the shallow Baltic Sea, which it has done since 1904. Sweden’s fleet currently consists of three advanced Gotland-class submarines and one older model scheduled to be retired when two new designs are delivered in 2027 and 2028, giving it five submarines by the end of the decade. Critically, the entirety of US submarine capabilities and a major portion of Russia’s submarine fleet are unable to operate in the shallow Baltic Sea. Sweden fills a crucial gap in capabilities for NATO in the Baltic Sea region with its long history of submarine expertise and modern capabilities.

瑞典的北约成员国身份也将改变北约在北极地区的游戏规则。当瑞典加入北约时，除俄罗斯外，八个北极国家中的七个将成为同一联盟的一部分。随着气候变化即将开辟新的海上通道，以及碳氢化合物和关键矿物等资源开采的可能性，该地区在商业和军事上的重要性逐渐增强。北极国家——尤其是俄罗斯——对该地区日益增长的地缘政治兴趣将需要北约成员国之间加强合作，以加强该地区的威慑。**国也对该地区越来越感兴趣，随着*俄关系的提升，该地区有可能成为正在进行的大国竞争中的一个新舞台。瑞典也注意到北极地区的重要性，并正在加强其在北极的存在。这一点从瑞典政府最近决定在瑞典北部开始建造两个新的驻军中可见一斑。俄罗斯正在对其北极能力进行大量投资，北约也必须对其在该地区的能力进行投资。瑞典加入北约大大增加了北约获得北极基础设施和培训机会的机会，并将瑞典在该地区的专业知识增加到北约的能力中。

Sweden’s membership will also be a game changer for NATO in the Arctic region. When Sweden joins NATO, seven of the eight Arctic states—all except for Russia—will be part of the same Alliance. With climate change poised to open new sea lanes and possibilities for resource extraction such as hydrocarbons and critical minerals, the region is becoming gradually more important both commercially and militarily. This rising geopolitical interest for the region by Arctic states—especially Russia—will require greater cooperation among NATO members to strengthen deterrence in the region. ** too is increasingly interested in the region, and with intensifying **-Russian relations, it is potentially a new theater in the ongoing great power competition. Sweden too has noted the importance of the Arctic region and is in a process of enhancing its presence in the Arctic. This is evident from the Swedish government’s recent decision to start construction on two new garrisons in northern Sweden. Russia is investing heavily in its Arctic capabilities, so too must NATO invest in its capabilities in the region. Adding Sweden as a member significantly increases NATO’s access to Arctic infrastructure, training opportunities, and adds Sweden’s expertise operating in the region to the Alliance’s capabilities.

Increased Cooperation and Bolstered Capabilities 加强合作，增强能力

除了瑞典将给北约联盟带来的直接利益外，还有未来的利益需要实现。自2014年俄罗斯吞并克里米亚以来，瑞典一直奉行增加军事和重新武装开支的战略。自2022年俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰以来，这一战略得到了加速。该国最近决定在2024财年将军费开支增加28%，这将使军费开支比计划提前六年超过2%的目标，这表明瑞典致力于成为联盟中值得信赖的合作伙伴。增加的资金将用于弥补瑞典目前的一些弱点，如人员和预备役人员数量少。每年的新兵人数将从5500人增加到10000人，这将使瑞典成为联盟中最大的预备役部队之一。它还计划重新启动平民征兵，以加强其人员和增强防御能力。

In addition to the immediate benefits Sweden will bring to the Alliance, there are also future benefits to realize. Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, Sweden has pursued a strategy of increased spending on the military and rearmament. This strategy has been accelerated since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The country’s recent decision to increase military spending by 28% for FY2024 will bring military spending above the 2% target six years earlier than planned—showcasing Sweden’s commitment to be a trustworthy partner in the Alliance. The increased funding will go towards bolstering some of Sweden’s current weaknesses, such as its low number of personnel and reservists. The annual number of recruits will increase from 5,500 to 10,000 and will give Sweden one of the largest reserve forces in the Alliance. It is also planning to reactivate civilian conscription in an effort to bolster its personnel and boost its defensive capabilities.

瑞典加入北约也为在联盟层面和区域层面开展防务合作开辟了新的可能性。瑞典长期以来的军事不结盟立场导致其在历史上没有充分利用与其他志同道合的伙伴在国防和安全方面的合作。因此，未来几年将为瑞典和联盟提供许多机会，以深化一体化和协同增效的合作。北约之外还有许多加强区域合作的机会，最引人注目的是与以下机构的合作：1）北欧防务合作组织（Nordefco），这是一个将北欧五国聚集在一起的防务合作组织；2） 北欧理事会，一个北欧合作的议会间机构（由于瑞典和芬兰的军事不结盟，该机构历来没有讨论国防问题）；3） 以及瑞典和芬兰之间的双边防务合作。今年早些时候，瑞典、芬兰、丹麦和挪威的空军指挥官发表了一项联合声明，共同目标是将所有北欧战斗机作为一支队伍进行操作，这是加强合作的明显迹象。这一宣布是在瑞典担任Nordefco主席国的早期做出的，将导致一支由至少250架战斗机组成的联合舰队，可能多达400架，尽管很难说有多少战斗机在积极使用。

Sweden’s NATO membership also opens up new possibilities of defense cooperation, both on the Alliance level and regionally. Sweden’s long position of military non-alignment has led it to historically underutilize cooperation with other like-minded partners on defense and security. The upcoming years will therefore provide Sweden and the Alliance many opportunities to deepen cooperation with integration and synergies. There are also numerous opportunities for increased regional cooperation outside of NATO, most notably with bodies such as 1) the Nordic Defense Cooperation (Nordefco), a defense collaboration bringing together the five Nordic countries; 2) the Nordic Council, an inter-parliamentary body for Nordic cooperation (and which has historically not discussed defense due to Sweden and Finland’s military non-alignment); 3) and bilateral defense cooperation between Sweden and Finland. A sign of increased cooperation was evident earlier this year, when the air force commanders of Sweden, Finland, Denmark and Norway issued a joint declaration, with a shared goal to operate all Nordic fighter jets as one fleet. This announcement–made during the early days of the Swedish presidency of Nordefco–would result in a joint fleet of at least 250 fighter jets, and possibly as many as 400, although it is difficult to say how many are in active use.

瑞典也在加强与包括美国在内的其他伙伴的关系，瑞典于2023年12月与美国达成了国防合作协议的谈判。这项双边协议为防务合作提供了一个框架，概述了驻瑞典美军的条件，如果有需要或愿望的话，并加深了北约内部的防务关系。另一个重要的合作伙伴是英国，瑞典近年来通过联合远征军（JEF）与英国进行了更多合作。联合远征军是英国领导的一项由十个北欧国家组成的防御倡议。北约中的瑞典在这两个框架中都是JEF的所有国家，这增加了北半球多领域互操作性的机会。此外，瑞典承诺在2025年向拉脱维亚派遣至少600名士兵，作为北约领导的多国战斗群的一部分。这些前沿部队对俄罗斯具有威慑作用，是瑞典承诺成为北约净捐助国的明显标志。

Sweden is also in the process of increasing its ties to other partners, including the United States, with whom Sweden concluded negotiating a Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA) in December 2023. This bilateral agreement provides a framework for defense cooperation, outlines the terms for US troops in Sweden, should the need or desire ever arise, and deepens defense relations within NATO. Another important partner is the United Kingdom, with whom Sweden has cooperated more in recent years through the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF)—a UK-led defense initiative consisting of ten Northern European countries. Sweden in NATO marks all of the JEF countries in both frameworks, enhancing opportunities for multi-domain interoperability in the high north. Additionally, Sweden has committed to sending at least 600 troops to Latvia in 2025 as part of a NATO-led multinational battle group. These forward placed units act as a deterrent to Russia and are a visible sign of Sweden’s commitment to be a net contributor to NATO.

自俄罗斯吞并克里米亚以来，瑞典决定申请加入北约，并对其军事进行了戏剧性的再投资，这标志着这个北欧国家军事政策的深刻转变。凭借强大的国防工业、众多高科技公司——包括5G基础设施设备的主要生产商之一——重要的地缘战略位置，以及强大的空军力量，增加了对波罗的海和北部走廊沿岸的兵力投射，瑞典将从加入联盟的第一天起为联盟做出重大贡献。瑞典与芬兰及其北欧邻国一道，正在进行空中能力的深度整合，联盟中新的北欧层面正在出现。作为北约的最新成员，瑞典将以一系列强大的能力加入北约，并戏剧性地改变北约的北部走廊。

Sweden’s decision to apply for NATO membership and its dramatic reinvestment in its military since the Russian annexation of Crimea represents a profound shift in the Nordic nation’s military policy. With a robust defense industry, numerous high-tech companies—including one of the major producers of 5G infrastructure equipment—vital geostrategic location, and a powerful air force that increases force projection into the Baltic Sea and shores up the Northern corridor, Sweden stands to contribute significantly to the alliance from day one as a member. Together with Finland and its Nordic neighbors, Sweden is undertaking a profound integration of air capabilities and a new Nordic dimension to the alliance is emerging. As NATO’s newest member, Sweden will join with a profound array of capabilities and dramatically transform the Northern corridor of the Alliance.

By Jason C. Moyer & Henri Winberg on January 23, 2024

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/swedens-contributions-nato-bolstering-alliances-defense-industry-and-air-capabilities

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