【新刊速递】《亚太国际关系》(IRAP), Vol 24, No 1, Jan2024 | 国政学人

题目：From guo to tianxia: linking two Daoist theories of International Relations

作者：Devin Joshi，新加坡管理大学政治学副教授。

摘要：道家思想是亚洲历史悠久的国际政治理论传统之一，本研究探讨了道家的国际关系理论（IRT）。本研究以老子的《道德经》为基础，阐明了道家的两种国际关系理论。首先，《老子》提供了一种以国家为中心、以“国”为基础的国际关系理论，该理论用以制定外交政策和处理国家间关系，强调以柔克刚。其次，《老子》提供了一种乌托邦式的、以“道”为基础的、以“天下”为中心的国际关系理论，通过“道”来消解国家间竞争，从而实现与宇宙的自然节奏相和谐的和平的全球治理。既有研究往往只关注这两种理论之一，本文则认为这两种观点紧密联系，第一种理论更为务实，且为第二种理论奠定了基石。这种联系展示了道家思想如何提供了一种复杂的非西方国际关系理论，对解决当今世界面临的挑战具有现实意义。

This study examines the international relations theory (IRT) of Daoism, one of Asia’s long-standing traditions to have theorized international politics. Drawing upon Laozi’s Dao De Jing, this study elucidates two Daoist IR theories. First, Laozi provides a state-focused guo-based IRT for conducting foreign policy and managing inter-state relations with emphasis on yielding and softness to overcome violence and domination. Second, Laozi offers a Utopian and globalist tianxia-centered IRT based on following the Dao whereby inter-state rivalry is dissolved in favor of peaceful planetary governance in harmony with the natural rhythms of the cosmos. Whereas previous scholarship often concentrates on only one of these two scenarios, I argue the two visions are tightly connected with the more pragmatic first theory envisioned as a stepping stone to obtaining the second. This link demonstrates how Daoism offers a sophisticated non-Western IRT with relevance to addressing planetary challenges today.

题目：Navigating great power competition: a neoclassical realist view of hedging

作者：Hunter S Marston，澳大利亚国立大学国际关系专业博士。

摘要：与小国将制衡外部威胁的预测相反，东南亚国家正在通过同时深化与美国和中国的安全合作来对冲风险。鉴于人们对中国崛起带来的威胁感知日益增强，以及两极压力不断加大，有关对冲的主流观点无法充分解释此类政策选择持续存在的原因。在考虑到现有理论的局限性后，本文认为新古典现实主义对冲路径更好地整合了影响决策者偏好的国内和国际因素。本文结合该理论框架进行了三个案例研究：新加坡、越南和菲律宾。新古典现实主义谨慎对待个人观念和官僚机构的作用，但又没有忽视新现实主义范式下变量的重要性，如安全威胁、条约联盟和经济利益等。最终，其更全面、更准确地解读了继续推动东南亚国家对冲以降低大国冲突风险的要素。

Contrary to predictions that smaller powers will balance against or bandwagon with external threats, Southeast Asian states are hedging by deepening their security cooperation with both the United States and China. Prevailing accounts of hedging do not adequately explain the persistence of such policy choices given growing threat perceptions of China and mounting bipolar pressures. After considering the limitations of existing theories, this article contends that a neoclassical realist approach to hedging better integrates the domestic and international factors that inform decision-makers’ preferences. It operationalizes this theoretical framework in three case studies: Singapore, Vietnam, and the Philippines. A neoclassical realist approach takes the role of individual perceptions and bureaucracies seriously, without dismissing the significance of variables identified by neorealism, including security threats, treaty alliances, and economic benefits. Ultimately, a more complete and accurate understanding of what continues to propel hedging in Southeast Asian states can mitigate the risks of great power conflict.

题目：Neither promoting nor projecting democracy: Indonesia’s middlepowermanship in the Bali democracy forum under Joko Widodo

作者：Mohamad Rosyidin，印尼迪波内戈罗大学国际关系系文学硕士；Indra Kusumawardhana，印尼佩塔米纳大学国际关系研究项目博士。

摘要：尽管印尼总统佐科·维多多(Joko Widodo)的外交政策具有务实特质，该国的民主指数也有所下降，但印尼仍然渴望继续举办巴厘岛民主论坛(BDF)。本文旨在运用中等大国外交的概念来解释这一明显的矛盾。本文认为，与其前任相比，维多多并不认为BDF是促进或在国外推广民主的工具。相反，维多多认为BDF强调了印尼在多边论坛中的领导作用。这种“中等强国特征”挑战了以精英为基础的解释印尼外交政策的方法，这种方法格外强调佐科维的个人性格特征。印尼国防军在维多多的领导下得以延续，反映出印尼对自身中等大国地位的默认思维。

Despite the pragmatic character of Indonesian President Joko Widodo’s foreign policy and the regression of the country’s democracy index, Indonesia remains eager for the continuation of Bali Democracy Forum (BDF). This article aims to solve this apparent contradiction using the concept of middle power diplomacy. This article argues that, in contrast to his predecessor, Widodo does not perceive BDF as an instrument to promote or project democracy abroad. Rather, Widodo considers the BDF to accentuate Indonesia’s leadership role in multilateral fora. This ‘middlepowermanship’ challenges the elite-based approach in explaining Indonesia’s foreign policy, which puts a strong emphasis on Jokowi’s personal character traits. The continuation of the BDF under Widodo reflects Indonesia’s default thinking of its status as a middle power.

题目：Will the United States come to Taiwan’s defense? Analysis of public opinion in Taiwan and the United States

作者：吴重礼，“中研院”政治研究所所长；林敏伟，台湾政治大学公共行政学系博士。

摘要：如果两岸之间爆发冲突，美国会来保护台湾吗? 中国大陆在该地区日益增强的自信，以及在台岛周边频繁的军事活动，重燃了人们对这个存在了几十年的问题的兴趣。本研究采用两项调查，分别于台湾地区和美国展开。美国的调查结果显示，尽管大多数美国人对台湾地区持积极看法，但在假设中国大陆“发动进攻”时，美国更倾向于采取何种军事反应方面，几乎没有达成共识。这些分析有助于推动现有文献关于台湾地区和美国关于台海冲突可能性的舆论演变的研究。

If conflict breaks out between Taiwan and China, would the United States come to the island’s defense? China’s growing assertiveness in the region and aggressive military activities around Taiwan have renewed interest in this decades-old question. This study examines the issue by employing two surveys, one conducted in Taiwan and another in the United States. Results of the Taiwan survey indicate that while a majority of Taiwan citizens do indeed believe the United States would help defend Taiwan if it were attacked by China, five types of respondents—idealists, pragmatists, democracy skeptics, political realists, and pessimists—can be discerned, each with a distinctive pattern of reasoning. Findings from the US survey reveal that while Americans mostly hold positive views of Taiwan, there is little consensus on the preferred US military response in the event of a Chinese attack. These analyses contribute to the existing literature on evolving public opinion in Taiwan and the United States concerning the possibility of armed conflict in the Taiwan Strait.