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摘要：

俄罗斯国防部发布并撤销了莫斯科单方面重新划定波罗的海地区海上边界的计划，这让观察家们感到震惊，然后又感到放心，他们倾向于将此视为官僚内讧。

首次发布的这份文件与俄罗斯对波罗的海地区的评论以及普京更广泛的策略一致，因为它的出现和删除使克里姆林宫既能发出强烈的信息，又能削弱西方的决心。

因此，该计划值得更多关注，作为俄罗斯意图的证据，以便西方能够履行其北约承诺，阻止俄罗斯在乌克兰和其他地方的行动。

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5月21日，俄罗斯国防部公布了一项单方面重新划定波罗的海地区海上边界的计划，供讨论。这份文件引发了人们的广泛担忧，即莫斯科即将对该计划采取行动。然后，不到一天后，在波罗的海、斯堪的纳维亚和乌克兰官员和评论员的批评以及克里姆林宫声称该计划不是政府政策后，俄罗斯官员删除了该文件。即便如此，很明显，弗拉基米尔·普京政权采取这一步骤并不是因为对该计划的愤怒，而是因为这样做让克里姆林宫可以两全其美。一方面，它对莫斯科的想法发出了明确的信息，从而传播了人们对其下一步可能采取的行动的担忧。另一方面，这与普京更广泛的政策和策略完全一致，特别是他继续努力将反对俄罗斯侵略的警告描绘成不负责任的危言耸听者，他们可以也应该被忽视。

俄国防部的文件首次发布在俄罗斯政府的法律事务门户网站上。该帖子现已被删除，但部分保存在此处，并在X（前推特）上有一张截图。《莫斯科时报》的记者也详细引用和描述了这一消息。来自该地区和西方的其他媒体报道似乎完全依赖于这些报道。

据《莫斯科时报》报道，俄罗斯国防部认为，莫斯科必须在2025年1月前“宣布芬兰湾东部以及加里宁格勒边界附近的部分水域为其内部水道”。文件称，苏联政府于1985年制定的现行划界线已不再符合当今的地缘政治现实。因此，必须对其进行修订。根据拟议的计划，莫斯科将单方面将芬兰湾五个小岛周围和纳尔瓦河口周围的边界坐标，以及立陶宛和加里宁格勒之间边界沿线的库伦斯皮特、塔兰角和波罗的海斯皮特周围的区域移向西方，加里宁格勒是俄罗斯的非毗连州。没有任何迹象表明这一提议已与其他俄罗斯政府机构进行了协调，也没有迹象表明莫斯科已就这一想法与芬兰、爱沙尼亚或立陶宛政府进行了接触。俄罗斯政府门户网站没有添加有关这些内容的语言，也没有具体说明该计划不会影响这些国家的国界，而是完全删除了该文件——这一行动表明，至少莫斯科的一些人认为它不仅仅是一个部门的想法。

受该计划影响最直接的国家反应迅速，绝大多数都是负面的。芬兰、爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚和立陶宛官员表达了不同程度的关切。芬兰领导人寻求更多澄清，拉脱维亚领导人表示，这是俄罗斯对波罗的海国家采取行动的开始，立陶宛官员宣布，该计划本身就对国际安全构成了直接威胁。斯堪的纳维亚半岛和乌克兰这四个国家的评论员和专家更为消极，谴责该计划是对北大西洋公约组织（NATO）和整个西方的挑衅。如果该计划没有这么快被取消，反应可能会更加激烈和关键。一位斯堪的纳维亚分析人士表示，之所以采取这一行动，是因为莫斯科对这一批评感到震惊，或者因为没有迹象表明俄罗斯政府除了改变地图上的界线之外还会做任何事情。其他人坚持认为，从网站上删除该计划并不意味着普京及其官员不再考虑该计划。

普京正在进行的对乌克兰的战争、他举行的具有核能力的军事演习、莫斯科对波罗的海国家和芬兰的日益批评，特别是克里姆林宫在波罗的海地区对抗北约的举动，这些过热的环境在很大程度上引发了人们对该计划的担忧，即使文件被删除，该计划也不会消退。毫不奇怪，该地区的许多分析人士将莫斯科关于相对有限的水量的提议视为俄罗斯对整个波罗的海地区更广泛威胁的预兆。这不仅包括波罗的海国家和芬兰，还包括瑞典对哥德兰的控制，哥德兰长期以来被视为波罗的海中部的一艘永不沉没的航空母舰。在俄罗斯国防部公布重新划定海上边界的计划后不到一天，瑞典武装部队指挥官米哈伊尔·拜登表示，普京似乎有意建立俄罗斯对整个波罗的海，特别是瑞典哥特兰岛的主导地位。

也许对俄罗斯国防部计划的最终意义最明确的警告来自现居以色列的俄罗斯评论员列昂尼德·涅夫兹林。他指出，“近年来的经验教会了俄罗斯的邻国”和整个西方，即使是普京意图的最微小迹象也要密切关注。”内夫兹林补充道，普京对历史和旧地图的痴迷一次又一次地导致他首先要求部分领土，然后要求全部领土——这种热情和方法让人想起希特勒自己的，而且总是“充满战争”。纳粹领导人被击败后，西方和苏联都试图通过宣布欧洲所有外部边界“不可侵犯”来防止新的战争。西方继续支持这一立场，同时“没有以任何方式阻止俄罗斯，无论是在阿布哈兹、南奥塞梯、克里米亚、顿巴斯，还是在当前的乌克兰血腥战争中。” 内夫兹林说，克里姆林宫行动的唯一限制是“北约国家的力量”。

这使得俄罗斯国防部的计划，即使它不再出现在俄罗斯政府网站上，西方也不能忽视，以免一些人认为这是一件小事，演变成一场更广泛的大火。

烛龙舞天博士编译

Despite Disowning Plan, Moscow Sends Clear Message of Intentions With Baltic Borders

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 21 Issue: 80

By:Paul Goble

May 23, 2024

Executive Summary:

• The Russian Defense Ministry posted and then took down a plan for Moscow to unilaterally redraw sea borders in the Baltic region, alarming and then reassuring observers inclined to dismiss this as bureaucratic infighting.
• The document as first posted is consistent with Russian commentary on the Baltic region and with Putin’s broader tactics as its appearance and then removal allow the Kremlin to both send a strong message and weaken Western resolve.
• As such, the plan deserves far more attention as evidence of Russian intentions so the West can live up to its NATO commitments and block Russian moves in Ukraine and elsewhere.

On May 21, the Russian Defense Ministry published a plan to unilaterally redraw the sea borders in the Baltic region for discussion (TASS; The Moscow Times, May 21). The document sparked widespread fears that Moscow was about to move on the plan. Then, less than a day later, after criticism from Baltic, Scandinavian, and Ukrainian officials and commentators and after the Kremlin claimed the plan was not government policy, Russian officials removed the document (The Moscow Times; Postimees; T.me/tass_agency, May 22). Even so, it is clear that the Vladimir Putin regime took this step not because of the outrage against the plan but because doing so allows the Kremlin to have it both ways. On the one hand, it sent a clear message about Moscow’s thinking and thus spread fears about what it might do next. On the other hand, it is fully consistent with Putin’s broader policies and tactics—particularly his continuing efforts to portray those warnings against Russian aggression as irresponsible alarmists who can and should be ignored (Novaya Gazeta; Kasparov.ru, May 22).

The Defense Ministry document was first published on the Russian government’s legal affairs portal (originally found at Regulation.gov.ru, May 21). The post has now been taken down but was saved in part here and with a screenshot on X (formerly Twitter) (X.com/TalibarFIN, May 22). It was also quoted and described in detail by journalists at The Moscow Times (The Moscow Times, May 21). Other media reports, both from the region and in the West, appear to rely exclusively on these reports. (See, for example, Svoboda; Istories.media; Kyiv Independent, May 22.)

According to the Moscow Times story, the Russian Defense Ministry believes that Moscow must, by January 2025, “declare portions of the waters in the eastern part of the Gulf of Finland as well as near the borders of Kaliningrad its internal waterways.” The current delimitation lines, established by the Soviet government in 1985, no longer correspond to present-day geopolitical realities, according to the document. Therefore, they must be revised. Under the proposed plan, Moscow would unilaterally shift the coordinates of these borders around the five small islands in the Gulf of Finland and around the mouth of the Narva River, as well as areas around the Curonian Spit, Cape Taran, and the Baltic Spit along the border between Lithuania and Kaliningrad, the non-contiguous Russian oblast to the west. Nothing suggests that this proposal has been coordinated with other Russian government agencies or that Moscow has approached the governments of Finland, Estonia, or Lithuania about the idea. Instead of adding language regarding those elements and specifying that the plan would not affect the state borders of these countries, the Russian government portal removed the document altogether—an action that suggests at least some in Moscow viewed it as more than the idea of a single ministry.

Reactions in the countries that would be most immediately affected by this plan were swift and overwhelmingly negative. Finnish, Estonian, Latvian, and Lithuanian officials expressed varying levels of concern. Finnish leaders sought more clarification, their Latvian counterparts suggested it was the beginning of a Russian move against the Baltic countries, and Lithuanian officials declared that the plan, by itself, represents a direct threat to international security (Delfi; TASS; Istories.media, May 22). Commentators and experts in those four countries, Scandinavia, and Ukraine were even more negative, denouncing the plan as a provocation against the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the West as a whole (Ukrainska Pravda; Novaya Gazeta, May 22). Reactions likely would have been even more numerous and critical had the plan not been taken down so quickly. One Scandinavian analyst suggested that the move had occurred because Moscow was taken aback by the criticism or because there was no indication that the Russian government would do anything more than change lines on a map (X.com/The_Lookout_N, May 22). Others insisted that taking down the plan from a website does not mean that the plan is no longer on the minds of Putin and his officials (Ukrainska Pravda, May 22).

The overheated environment of Putin’s ongoing war against Ukraine, his staging of nuclear-capable military exercises, Moscow’s increasing criticism of the Baltic states and Finland, and especially the Kremlin’s moves to counter NATO in the Baltic Sea region stoked much of the alarm regarding the plan, which does not look to subside even with the document taken down (see EDM, December 18, 2023, May 15; Window on Eurasia, May 17). Many analysts in the region, not surprisingly, see Moscow’s proposal about a relatively limited portion of water as a harbinger of broader Russian threats to the Baltic region as a whole. This would include not only the Baltic countries and Finland but even Sweden’s control of Gotland, long viewed as an unsinkable aircraft carrier in the middle of the Baltic Sea. Less than a day after the Russian Defense Ministry posted its plan to redraw sea borders, Mikhail Byden, commander of the Swedish Armed Forces, said that Putin appears intent on establishing Russian dominance over the entire Baltic Sea and the Swedish island of Gotland in particular (Rnd.de, May 22).

Perhaps the clearest warning about the ultimate meaning of the Russian Defense Ministry plan comes from Leonid Nevzlin, a Russian commentator now living in Israel. He points out that “the experience of recent years has taught Russia’s neighbors” and the West as a whole to pay close attention even to the smallest signs of Putin’s intentions (T.me/leonidnevzlin, May 22). Nevzlin adds, again and again, Putin’s obsession with history and old maps has led him to demand first portions of territory and then all of it—a passion and approach that recall Hitler’s own and that is always “fraught with war.” After the Nazi leader was defeated, both the West and the Soviet Union sought to prevent a new war by declaring all external borders in Europe “inviolable.” The West continues to support that position, while it has “not stopped Russia in any way, either in Abkhazia, or in South Ossetia, or in Crimea, or in the Donbas, or in the current bloody war in Ukraine.” The only limit on the Kremlin’s actions, Nevzlin says, is “the strength of NATO countries.”

That makes the Russian Defense Ministry plan, even if it is no longer on a Russian government website, something that the West cannot afford to ignore lest what some dismiss as a minor matter grows into a broader conflagration.

https://jamestown.org/program/despite-disowning-plan-moscow-sends-clear-message-of-intentions-with-baltic-borders/